IdeaLog

Lessons of the 2024 election, part one

Posted on December 10, 2024

There were two major problems in the 2024 election, the overall message and the overall communications strategy. Today, let’s talk about the failure of Democrats to win the most important issue—the economy.

As James Carville famously said in the 1992 election, it’s “the economy, stupid.” And that doesn’t mean inflation, unemployment or any official measurement. It means how people perceive their own situation; it’s how they feel.

By objective measurements, the U.S. economy is strong. Unemployment is at record lows, inflation is under control, and the stock market is soaring. But that’s not how Americans feel about the economy. The persuadable voters who made the difference in this election—those who switched sides, split tickets or failed to vote—generally felt miserable.

And they had good reason! Nearly half of Americans believe they are living paycheck-to-paycheck. Almost 40 percent say they couldn’t pay for an unexpected expense of $400. Many in our communities are carrying large credit card balances or have considerable healthcare, student loan or other consumer debts. Not coincidentally, people in economic trouble feel worse about themselves and are more likely to abuse alcohol or drugs or engage in destructive gambling or other unhealthy behaviors. In short, only the top five-to-ten percent of Americans are truly secure.

This is not because of the price of eggs or supply shortages. It is because, since the Reagan Administration, hedge funds and big corporations have “maximized profit” by holding down wages, cutting benefits, eliminating jobs, defeating unions, and winning Supreme Court cases to increase the power of the wealthy over the rest of us. They have pushed up prices in every way possible, often in small increments at a time, diminishing quantity in a previously standardized package, lowering quality in part by outsourcing and sending production and services overseas, and making customers do the work previously done by clerks and cashiers. Americans have been economically squeezed and many have to respond by taking two or three jobs just to make ends meet. It’s a disaster and ought to be seen as a disgrace.

This topic ought to be a slam-dunk for progressives and Democrats. After all, it is the rich—represented by conservative Republicans—who are to blame for this disaster and disgrace. And yet, persuadable voters either blamed the Democrats and voted for Trump, or they thought there was no real difference between the parties and didn’t show up to vote.

The problem is not Democratic policies, which are far more pro-middle class and anti-rich than the Republicans, the problem is with Democratic messaging. We just don’t say the obvious, that:

Say… For most working Americans, our economy is broken. To fix it, our policies must benefit all the people, of every race and ethnicity—not just the richest one percent. Our system works when everyone gets a fair shot, everyone gives their fair share, and everyone plays by the same rules.

We don’t blame the big corporations, hedge funds and special interests:

Say… Most Americans are struggling, while the rich are doing better than ever. We need an economy that works for Main Street, not Wall Street. Every hardworking American should have the opportunity to earn a decent living, receive high-quality affordable health care, get a great education for their children, and retire with security. Right-wing leaders are working for the big corporations, the hedge funds and the special interests. Progressive leaders are fighting for you.

We don’t point out that MAGA and Republicans generally have no economic policies except to benefit the rich:

Say… Working Americans need policies that support them. They need leaders who are on their side. Let’s be frank. There are simply no MAGA plans to create jobs, increase wages, provide health care, relieve debt, or stand up against big corporations. MAGA policies are nothing but grandstanding and strategies to shovel more and more money to the rich. The billionaires who support MAGA are the ones who broke the economy, and they have no intention of fixing it for you.

You don’t have to be a socialist to make these extremely popular arguments. It is not about policy, it’s about putting our strongest arguments forward. These arguments are all true but persuadable voters have no idea that this is the position of progressives or Democrats.